What can we expect to see after 1Q11?

Property forecast has been moving in the direction as we had expected in the earlier article of the year, with not too much of movement, constant growth and no unexpected boom. Private property prices slowed to a 2.2% (2.7% 4Q11) and HDB property prices to 1.6% (2.5% 4Q11) in 1Q11. The main question after looking at this figure is that will this trend continues? And if so, will this comes to a stage such that we are no longer looking at positive growth? Before we touch on this important question, let us take in some significant figures for 1Q11.

The transaction of private properties for Core Central Region reduces from 2.1% in 4Q11 to 1.1% in 1Q11 but we see better transaction for Central and Fringe region improving to 2.0% and 3.1% from 1.9% and 2.1% in 4Q11. Could this due to the fact that Core Central Region prices are reaching a new plateau and thus making outer regions to be more attractive?

For resale HDB buyers, the good news is that the overall Cash Over Valuation (COV) has dropped further to $21k from $23k in 4Q11. With not much change in the volume (6228 in 1Q11 and 6454 in 4Q11), we can see that the buyers are already getting the feel of the dropping COV.

With these data, we can now revert back to the original question of the future trending. Yes, we will be expecting this slower growth as we progress through the next quarter but once again, we do not expect any drastic boom or slum if all goes well. For the part of are we expecting a negative trend instead, the forecast is once again a positive “NO.” One recommendation for buyers and sellers based on current forecast is that if there is a NEED to buy or sell, it will not make any significant differences in savings or profit if it is going to be within the next quarter.